Earlier we predicted a number of external factors would help Congressman Jim Rogan win re-election in the hotly contested races for California's 27th CD. Rogan is the only one of two House Impeachment managers facing a serious election challenge.
In the last week, the external factors we talked about have become less important to basic campaign tactics. Adam Schiff, Rogan's opponent, has finished the campaign strong, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on television ads. Rogan appears to have been dark the whole time.
In view of the strong finish by Schiff, we now predict Jim Rogan will not be re-elected. We also predict a prominent role in the Bush White House.
Below is our earlier prediction:
This is the third time Jim Rogan and Adam Schiff have faced each other in an election. The first time was in a special State Assembly election in 1993 and then again in the regular general election. In both races Jim Rogan came out on top.
The 27th CD encompasses Pasadena, Glendale and parts of Los Angeles. Long a Republican bastion, anchored by conservative Glendale, the 27th has been trending Democratic for the last decade. It also has the largest Armenian population outside of Armenia.
Rogan brings a varied background to the race. The son of a welfare mother, Rogan put himself through law school and had a successful career as a prosecutor before being appointed as the youngest Municipal Court judge in California. He served in the Assembly for less than four years, where he quickly became Republican Floor Leader, before running for Congress in 1996.
Adam Schiff was also a prosecutor for the County of Los Angeles. He ran for State Senate in 1996, swept into power in the Democratic landslide that year.
Earlier this year, many observers had written Rogan off. The districts drift to the left, a strong opponent, and the wrath of the Hollywood crowd spelled doom for the conservative Republican. Adam Schiff was the new darling of the Democratic Party attracting millions of dollars in contributions from those seeking revenge for Rogan's role in the impeachment hearings.
But there are several factors working in Rogan's favor. The presidential race has taken a turn for the worse for Al Gore in California. There will be an unprecedented Republican get-out-the-vote effort in the region. Republicans will more than likely turn out in much higher numbers than Democrats. Also, there is a more competitive than expected State Senate race for Schiff's seat. The Republican is of Asian decent and has worked hard in the Asian community. They will turn out to vote for the Republican and Rogan should benefit.
The only Armenian-American anywhere on the ballot is a Republican, albeit a weak one, running for State Assembly. In the primary election for the seat Democrats had a choice between an Armenian and an Hispanic. They chose the Hispanic and there is still some hard feelings about that in the Armenian Community who consider this their seat. Expect Rogan to reap some benefits from this important swing constituency in the district.
Based on his compelling story and positive external factors, PoliticalUSA.com predicts Congressman James Rogan will be re-elected to a third term.
this the year Gejdenson goes down?
In the three elections from
1992 and 1996 he won by a total of less than 10% in all three
elections combined - including a 21-vote margin in 1994.
We’re talking about Democrat Sam Gejdenson of Connecticut’s
CD comprises the eastern part of the state and is made up of 54 small
towns and cities. Clinton
topped Dole by 21% in 1996. Perot
captured 27% of the vote in 1992 – one of his best districts in the
In those three elections
Gejdenson was faced by former Republican State Senator Ed Munster.
In each race, the hardworking Munster was outspent by at least 3-1 and as much
as 10-1. In the 1994
cliffhanger a third party candidate captured 15% of the vote, mainly
in strong Republican areas of the district, swinging the final vote to
Gejdenson has racked up one of
the most liberal voting records in Congress.
In the last few years he moved out of the district to his
wife’s mansion down the shoreline.
After an easy re-election in
1998, many expected the tough challenges to Gejdenson to be over.
Then came Rob Simmons.
Simmons is a State
Representative from Stonington and has a distinguished military record
in Vietnam including earning two Bronze Stars.
He served with the CIA and went on to work for Senators John
Chafee and Barry Goldwater.
Simmons has proven to be an adept
fundraiser, already raising over $850,000.
Not as much as Gejdenson but almost twice as much as any
The addition of Connecticut
Senator Joe Lieberman on the national Democratic ticket was supposed
to add 10 percentage points to Democrats around the state as energized Democrats
turned out to support their favorite son.
But the Lieberman coattails have grown shorter and shorter as
the election cycle dragged on.
And Gejdenson has made some
serious errors. Earlier
in the campaign he was forced to fire two staffers after it was
revealed they were responsible for spreading rumors that Simmons had
been responsible for torturing prisoners when he was in the CIA.
This also earned an uncharacteristic apology from the normally
Based on the extreme
liberal voting record and the closely match fundraising contest, we
are predicting Rob Simmons will upset Congressman Sam Gejdenson.
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