|
If you need proof of
former-president Clinton's fundamental impact on the Democratic
party, look no farther than the emerging list of hopefuls vying
to take on President Bush in 2004.
Some of the presumed
heavyweights are already putting organizational foundations in
place. On that list are Sens. Joe Lieberman, John Kerry,
and John Edwards.
There's also the obvious
possibility that Al Gore will run again, and leading
congressional Democrats Tom Daschle and Dick Gephardt may run.
Added to that list are a few
intriguing folks who lack national recognition, but are reported
to be "interested" or "mulling a run" in the
latest AP
story.
Among those are Vermont Gov.
Howard Dean, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, and Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes.
The residue of Clinton's success
as a newfangled Democrat is shown most clearly in just how many
top Democratic hopefuls count themselves as a New Democrat, or
connect themselves in some way to leading centrist organizations
such as the Democratic Leadership Council.
Most of this field tries to make
that association.
What it actually means, in terms
of their views, varies quite widely.
There are traditional liberals
who adopt an unorthodox position on an issue or two -- usually
including free trade. Thus, a solid liberal such as Tom
Daschle can count himself among the New Democrats simply by
accepting global trade and rejecting protectionism.
Some take it a bit more
seriously, placing themselves on that so-very attractive
"border" between true centrism and traditional
liberalism. Sen. Edwards is an exceptionally talented
emerging Democrat, and his views diverge in places from liberal
orthodoxy.
Issues 2002 gives a breakdown of
Edwards'
positions on a variety of issues, and in their nifty little
ideological diagram positions him right on the line separating
moderates from liberals.
That sort of positioning
provides the best basis for success in the primaries --
candidates who can adopt the successful Clinton mantle of
moderation while simultaneously pleasing liberal activists with
most of their views. It worked for Al Gore in 2000, and
could easily work again.
One measure of the new weight of
centrism, however, is the fact that some of these potential
candidates go quite a bit farther than the "window
dressing" type centrism we see from guys like Edwards,
Daschle, and Gore.
Sen. Lieberman has a remarkably
strong record of independent thought and action, though it was
blunted somewhat by the necessity of adopting Gore's views in
the 2000 campaign. Some question whether he went a step or
two too far in embracing Gore's agenda, and whether the prospect
of trying to win Democratic primaries in 2004 might blunt
efforts to re-embrace the much more appealing maverick politics
of the past.
Just as interesting, though less
well-known, is Gov. Roy Barnes of Georgia. He's brought an
intriguing combination of fiscal conservatism and
moderate-to-liberal cultural policies to the Georgia statehouse.
On taxes and education policy, he implemented tough and
generally conservative policies. But he's generally
pro-choice on abortion, and he bucked strong popular opinion in
the ultimately successful effort to change the Georgia state
flag.
This is a man willing to step on
a few toes and defy traditional interests in the process of
adopting a distinct and reasonably strong agenda. And he
has a "down home" personality that might come across
quite well on the national stage.
A.P. reporter Dick Pettys
described Gov. Barnes as "a little bit like Tom Sawyer and
a little bit like Clarence Darrow. But mostly, he's like the
garrulous neighbor who swaps stories over the backyard fence --
only funnier."
The Watson
Political Report recently suggested that Gov. Barnes
"...might be the candidate Bush should fear most."
Centrists ought to be looking at
these candidates closely now -- looking for the one with that
"right" combination of bold plans and presidential
stature.
We need to get in early, and
strongly, if we expect distinct centrist candidates to have a
chance of emerging in a field crowded with folks more pleasing
to the Democratic base.
|
