I know the polls show
this to be a very close presidential election campaign but, if you
step back from the flash polls and look at the bigger picture, what
emerges is the number of voting blocs that have little reason or
desire to support Al Gore and the Democratic ticket. Here’s a bloc
by bloc look at the current situation.
Consider just one
small bloc, the Arab-American vote, estimated at some 300,000.
The presence of Joe Lieberman, an Orthodox Jew, on his ticket
makes it difficult for them to support Gore. In an ironic reflection
of this, Gore may well have also lost a portion of the Jewish-American
vote for the same reason.
A word of explanation
on the latter. Jews have thrived in America precisely because they
have preferred a low profile. This is not to say that Jews have not held positions
of power near those who hold the highest level of executive power. No
Jew, however, has ever been within a heartbeat of actually being President. It arouses ever-present Jewish fears of the ancient
anti-Semitic slander that a secret Jewish cabal is running the world.
The prospect of a Jewish Vice President makes some Jews nervous.
The selection of Sen.
Joe Lieberman was initially seen as a benefit to Gore, but no longer.
First, there are the new problems in the Middle East. Then there’s
his reversal of long-held political viewpoints, comments about wanting
to meet Louis Farrakhan, his lackluster performance in the debate with
Dick Cheney, and his failure to debate his Connecticut senatorial
opponent. These have all added up to a net loss of confidence. He
looks like just another politician.
There are other
groups who are less than thrilled about a Jewish Vice President and
the largest among them are Afro-Americans who to an unknown, but perhaps significant degree,
harbor anti-Semitic feelings. Aside from the ravings of Minister
Farrakhan the Black Muslim leader, the Rev. Al Sharpton reflects an
even larger body of ill will. Both Gore and Hillary have sought his
blessing. Since the days LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act, Democrats
have been able to take Afro-Americans for granted.
is essential, however, to keep in mind that not all
Afro-Americans, nor all
Jewish-Americans or any other ethnic, religious or national group are
going to vote in lockstep. They won’t.
are far more in tune with Bush than Gore. For one thing, his nephew is
an Hispanic, the son of brother Jeb, and this young man has been
campaigning extensively in the Hispanic communities around the nation.
Hispanics had a lot to do with George W. being elected to a second
term as Governor of Texas and the guy actually speaks their language,
mangling it with as much ease as he does English.
More to the point,
however, Hispanics are largely Catholic, family oriented, and
anti-abortion, issues with which they have more in common with Bush.
Travel throughout the southwest and in southern California, and you
will conclude you’d better start learning Spanish as a second
language. Most certainly Gore cannot count on any
votes from the large Cuban-American
community in south Florida.
By extension, while
not all Catholics are pro-life, those that are, Italian-American,
Irish-American, Polish-American, and others who respect the Church’s
position may prove a very decisive factor for Bush. Nor should fundamentalist or born-again Christians,
Baptists and other denominations, be overlooked. Their vote will
most surely be in the Republican column.
anyone sickened by Clinton’s immoral behavior as President and
Gore’s “no controlling authority” fundraising. This is, in my
view, the “X” factor in this election.
Has anyone even heard
Gore say “Clinton” in recent weeks? A sign that his campaign is in
deep trouble would be the appearance of ads starring Clinton, just
before the election, expressing his support for the Vice President.
The pundits say that
Gore needs the unions and this is true, but many rank and file unionist members
feel the Clinton-Gore administration has sold them out. They fear
seeing more jobs go overseas. Union members have seen the US steel
industry disappear and all
they hear from Gore is a lot of ranting about Big Oil, Big Tobacco,
Big Drug companies, corporate polluters, et cetera. This is an
administration that has sat back and watched the timber industry fall
prey to rabid environmentalists and thwarted the development of
US-based petroleum development.
people and many of them belong to unions. So, Joe Lunchbox is just as
likely to vote for George W. Bush than Al Gore and that bodes ill for
the Democrats. The tight race in Michigan reflects this. Most
certainly, the United Auto Workers and Teamster
members will not vote for Gore, a man who wants to “eliminate
the internal combustion engine.” To them you can also add embers of
the United Mine Workers.
The most significant
indicator that Gore is in deep trouble is the decision of one of the
largest federal government employees unions, the National Association
of Government Employees, which announced on Friday it is endorsing
Bush. This union has an estimated 100,000 members. Their endorsement
said, "Governor Bush will change the role of government for the
better." This same union endorsed Clinton and Gore in both 1992
and 1996. About the only major unions left that might still support
Gore are the teachers and there are indications here, too, that many
rank and file members prefer the Bush approach to education given its
success in Texas.
Members of the US
military hate Clinton and, when they hear Gore and Lieberman talk
about how prepared the military is versus George Bush saying we need
to rebuild our military, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out for
whom they and their families will vote. Then add in veterans
who watched the dead from the US Cole return. When George W. talks of
putting two killers to death and a third in jail for life, police officers in America want to salute. And their wives vote too.
To these you can also
add ranchers, farmers and
workers in the timber industry.
All have been savaged by the Clinton-Gore Environmental Protection
Agency, the Bureau of Land Management, and other bureaucracies. Then,
too, there are 80 million law-abiding gun-owners.
The 4.1 million members of the National Rifle Association will not
vote for Gore.
These are sizeable
blocs of voters any one of which, in a very tight race, could tip the
whole thing to George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. So, the diviners of
Democratic tea leaves and tarot cards have got to be worried.
Finally, there is Wall
Street. A lot of investors have been signaling their concerns. If
you haven’t noticed, the Market has been tanking in recent weeks
thanks to worries about higher energy prices, oil and natural gas
shortages, and a slowdown among consumers consuming.
predict changes and the only change immediately ahead is a change of
who’s running the country as of January 20th.
think the pundits and media are beginning to think what I’m
thinking. Eight years of Clinton administration lies, criminality, and
immorality are catching up with Al Gore. Almost anything could tip the
scales to Bush at this point and, with Clinton still in the Oval
office, you just never know, do you? In just over two weeks, I believe
we will see a Republican victory. A big one!
© Alan Caruba, 2000
View expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Political USA.